Fluxes not Flows: Kazakhstan’s Energy Transition Dilemma

“We should use what God gives us; God gave us oil and leads us back to oil. We have always been unsure of solar. We cannot know better than God.”

Community Leader, Shymkent

Mariel Kieval

As the world’s dependence on energy in all its forms continues to grow, Kazakhstan, a large land-locked country in Central Asia, has built and sustained its economy on fossil fuels. Its vast reserves of oil and gas, primarily concentrated around the Caspian Sea, and its major investments in developing infrastructure for the transportation and export of these resources have cemented Kazakhstan’s status as a petrostate. Despite global commitments to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, Kazakhstan continues to expand fossil fuel production through pending pipelines, like the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Kuryk pipeline. Concurrently, the country has begun exploring renewable energy initiatives, partly driven by international financial institutions like the World Bank and external forces such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has invested $140 million in the Zhanatas Wind Power Station alone (EBRD n.d.). Kazakhstan’s goals under the UNFCCC include achieving a 10% share of renewable energy sources in its energy mix, alongside increasing the use of gas power plants to 25% by 2030, as well as becoming carbon neutral by 2060 (ITA 2021). However, recent geopolitical shifts, including Europe’s reduced reliance on Russian fossil energy due to its invasion of Ukraine, have further elevated Kazakhstan’s strategic importance as an energy producer.

Kazakhstan’s energy ambitions, first outlined in its 1997 plan, “Kazakhstan-2030”, have long included diversifying its economy beyond oil and gas. While renewable energy targets and policies such as the “Green Kazakhstan” national project signal a shift, the reality is more complex. Between 2000 and 2010, the country’s oil and gas production grew by 135% (Blankenship et al. 2024), with fossil fuels continuing to dominate its energy mix, demonstrating the deep entrenchment of the industry. This tension between expanding fossil fuel production and pursuing renewables underscores the contradictions inherent in the global energy transition narrative.

Is an Energy Transition Possible?

“I don’t believe in a green transition… look at Texas. When there was hard winter period, there was huge collapse with wind and solar energy.”

Environmental Lawyer, Almaty

Much discourse surrounding energy trends focuses on the ‘transition’ of energy, from fossil fuels to renewable fuels, as if generating increasing amounts of solar and wind energy will put oil and gas out of business. However, Kazakhstan’s continuation and even expansion of fossil extraction, alongside and in spite of its growing renewable energy production, is a clear sign that the so-called transition is not as straightforward as it is often presented. With 148 active renewable energy plants, Kazakhstan’s renewables make up 6.67% of its total energy production (Akhmetkali 2024b).

Furthermore, neoliberal rhetoric surrounding renewable energy projects tends to portray it as a universal good and as imperative despite any costs to human and nonhuman beings. Kazakhstan is considered to have great potential in generating wind and solar energy, as well as hydropower and more recently, nuclear, though progress has been uneven. In 2021, Kazakhstan enacted “Green Kazakhstan,” a strategy outlining its ambitious albeit somewhat vague goals for ‘greening’ the economy. However, implementation of the strategy has been difficult in part, due to logistical barriers, such as energy storage, and a lack of clarity on how renewables can be integrated into existing systems (Akhmetkali 2024). Public perceptions also play a role. For many, Kazakhstan’s national identity is strongly tied to its economic successes as a petrostate, making people skeptical about the potential for renewable energies. Fossil fuels are seen as reliable and proven, while renewables, though heavily promoted in government messaging, remain met with suspicion. These attitudes have a significant effect on how people choose to engage with environmental issues and view their ability to have an individual impact.

Visibility and Perceptions of Energy Flows

“I’m a traditional power engineer at heart. Deep inside, I trust more traditional oil and gas. With wind power, you depend on the wind. With solar, on the sun. It’s not stable.”

Solar Park Executive, Zhambyl Region

The visibility of energy (and other resource) flows shapes public understanding and acceptance of such systems. The term “flows” suggests a smooth and unidirectional movement, yet Kazakhstan’s energy sector may be better characterized by “flux,” a state of constant change and adaptation. Geopolitics and market forces and social hesitancy significantly influence this flux, as Kazakhstan pivots between its reliance on fossil fuels and renewable energy opportunities.

In some ways, the ‘out of sight, out of mind’ narrative does not hold up in the context of Kazakhstan. While the government certainly is promoting publicly its goals of becoming carbon neutral by 2060, many people I spoke with expressed skepticism about whether renewable energy sources can support Kazakhstan’s energy needs. They perceive fossil fuels as something tried and true, dependable, despite acknowledging the harmful impacts on human and environmental health. Fossil fuel production, tied to Kazakhstan’s Soviet past, is visible in many communities as towns were built around refineries and coal plants. In contrast, renewable energy infrastructures have been largely constructed in remote areas, requiring sizeable tracts of land but employing fewer people. This physical and economic distance has contributed significantly to public distrust of renewables.

The Social Side of Energy Fluxes

“For ordinary people, that doesn’t matter what is the source of this energy, the wind, solar, coal, and so on. We just need electricity.”

Environmental Activist, Almaty

Interviewees reveal a disconnect between the state’s energy priorities and local communities’ concerns, discussing worries over job security and the affordability of energy rather than the large-scale tradeoffs between fossil and renewable energies. The immediate economic realities of energy production often overshadow broader discussions about climate change or long-term environmental impacts. Several environmental activists and employees of environmental non-profits I spoke with work on ‘green economy’ projects. They expressed that the activities of their non-profit organizations outwardly parallel government priorities, but practically the goals of their work are largely to support people out of poverty rather than change attitudes. For example, one organization works with business owners from rural communities to create ‘sustainable’ businesses. However, the use of ‘sustainable’ in this context, refers to the potential for long-term longevity of the business, rather than the extent to which it is a ‘green’ business. This framing reflects the broader challenges of integrating green energy narratives into public consciousness in a way that resonates with people’s daily lives. Conversations also revealed public apathy, more broadly. As one interviewee put it when I asked what they think about green energy, “I don’t.”

Looking Ahead

“We see a lot of changing from the oil and gas to green energy. Of course probably ‘til whenever they close my eyes, I will be working with oil and gas.”

Petroleum Engineer, Atyrau

In October 2024, Kazakh citizens voted in a national referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant – over 70% in favor (Radio Azattyq 2024a). While some question the integrity of these results over reports of ballot stuffing, they may reflect growing public interest in diversifying Kazakhstan’s energy landscape. The nuclear power plant location is currently planned to be on the shores of Lake Balkhash, the ecosystem of which is explicitly mentioned in the “Green Kazakhstan” project as an area for conservation (UNEP n.d.b), raising concerns over the potential damage to yet another of Kazakhstan’s ecosystems. With Russia poised to play a major role in investing and building the power plant, energy collaboration between the two countries remains forward-looking. Anti-nuclear sentiment was once a symbol of Kazakh independence from Soviet Russia. Today, nuclear energy has reemerged as a contentious issue, reflecting uncertainty over whether it represents progress or a step backward, as Kazakhstan’s citizenry and government battle to chart its energy future.

While the effects of fossil extraction have long been discussed and focus turns toward exciting developments in energies like nuclear and hydropower, it is important not to forget those who are still living in petro-realities and the social and environmental costs they bear. Constantly in flux, it is necessary to continue updating our understanding of Kazakhstan’s energy landscape and the local attitudes that accompany both traditional and renewable energy systems, which are shaped by constant negotiations between the past, present, and future.

Mariel Kieval is a master’s candidate in the Environmental Change & Global Sustainability Program. With the support of Flowision, she spent June and July 2024 in Kazakhstan conducting interviews for her thesis. The quotations that appear in this blogpost are from these interviews.

Sources

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